1. Monetary Policy
  2. Direct Inflation Targeting
  3. NBR Projections
  4. Selection of charts

NBR Projections

Selection of charts



 
 

Inflation Projection and the Associated
Uncertainty Interval


 
 

Q3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025Q4 2025Q1 2026Q2 2026Q3 2026Q4 2026Q1 2027
Target 2.5   2.5   2.5 
Actual/ Projected**(%)4.65.14.95.15.14.63.74.23.43.43.3
constant taxes*3.84.24.44.75.04.53.64.03.33.13.1
Uncertainty Interval (%) - - - ±0.5 ±0.9 ±1.4 ±2.0 ±2.2 ±2.4 ±2.5 ±2.5

* Excluding the first round impact of the changes in the VAT rate, excise duties and some non-tax fees and charges
 ** end of period
  Source: NIS, NBR calculations


 
 


 
 
 
 

Adjusted CORE2

Q3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025Q4 2025Q1 2026Q2 2026Q3 2026Q4 2026Q1 2027
Actual/Projected*           
Adjusted CORE25.65.65.25.35.14.53.93.53.33.23.0
Adj. CORE2 excl. VAT effect**5.45.45.25.35.14.53.93.53.33.23.0

*  End of period
** Adjusted CORE2 inflation rate excluding the VAT first round effect
Source: NIS, NBR calculations

 

Energy Inflation Rate

Q3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025Q4 2025Q1 2026Q2 2026Q3 2026Q4 2026Q1 2027
Actual/ Projected* (%)-3.60.00.31.75.64.42.46.02.21.71.8

* End of period
  Source: NIS, NBR calculations

 

 

Administered prices inflation, excluding electricity and natural gas

Q3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025Q4 2025Q1 2026Q2 2026Q3 2026Q4 2026Q1 2027
Actual/ Projected* (%)5.64.86.97.16.66.42.62.83.24.64.6

* End of period
  Source: NIS, NBR calculations

 

Vegetable, Fruit and Egg Prices

Q3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025Q4 2025Q1 2026Q2 2026Q3 2026Q4 2026Q1 2027
Actual/ Projected* (%)10.08.87.610.22.43.36.77.87.17.47.6

* End of period
  Source: NIS, NBR calculations

 
 
 
 
 
 
 

GDP Deviation

Q3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025Q4 2025Q1 2026Q2 2026Q3 2026Q4 2026Q1 2027
Estimated/ Projected(%)0.70.5-0.0-0.4-0.7-0.9-0.9-0.9-0.8-0.7-0.5

Source: NBR calculations

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