Inflation Projection and the Associated
Uncertainty Interval
| Period | 2009
Q4 | 2010
Q1 | 2010
Q2 | 2010
Q3 | 2010
Q4 | 2011
Q1 | 2011
Q2 | 2011
Q3 | 2011
Q4 | 2012
Q1 | 2012
Q2 |
|---|
| Target | 3.5 | | | | 3.5 | | | | 3.0 | | |
|---|
| Actual/Projected* (%) | 4.7 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 8.0 | 7.8 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 3.0 |
|---|
| Uncertainty Interval (%) | | | | ± 0.5 | ± 1.1 | ± 1.5 | ± 1.8 | ± 2.1 | ± 2.1 | ± 2.3 | ± 2.4 |
|---|
* End of period
Source: NIS, NBR calculations
Note: The uncertainty interval associated with the inflation projection is based on forecast errors, derived from comparing actual data with model based projections made during August 2005 - August 2008. For more details see Constructing the uncertainty interval.
For further details on the latest NBR projection, see :
The NBR's quarterly projections require a structured forecasting framework.