Inflation Projection and the Associated
Uncertainty Interval
| | Q1 2011 | Q2 2011 | Q3 2011 | Q4 2011 | Q1 2012 | Q2 2012 | Q3 2012 | Q4 2012 | Q1 2013 | Q2 2013 | Q3 2013 |
| Target | | | | 3.0 | | | | 3.0 | | | |
| Actual/ Projected* (%) | 8.0 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 2.8 |
| Uncertainty Interval (%) | - | - | - | ±0.5 | ±1.1 | ±1.5 | ±1.8 | ±2.1 | ±2.1 | ±2.3 | ±2.4 |
* End of period
Source: NIS, NBR calculations
Note: The uncertainty interval associated with the inflation projection is based on forecast errors, derived from comparing actual data with model based projections made during August 2005 - August 2008. For more details see Constructing the uncertainty interval.
The NBR's quarterly projections require a structured forecasting framework.